College Football for Dummies

Tonight marks the beginning of the 2005 college football season, highlighted by a not-so-instant classic between USC and Central Florida. No, not two-time defending national champion USC. The University of South Carolina will open up in the spotlight, fresh off an old fashioned, get a grip, WWF style slapdown from the NCAA for various violations under former coach and former legend Lou Holtz. And there is little doubt on whom that spotlight – and every other camera employed by the Worldwide Leader - will shine the brightest: that self-effacing, pass-loving, score-running-upping Ole’ Ball Coach himself, Steve Spurrier.

I, for one, can’t think of a better way to start the season than with Spurrier trying to erase the memory of his disastrous stint as coach of the Washington Redskins. You just know he’s going to try and score 100 points. Forget the fact that there may not be a single player on the field that could start for this year’s edition of Spurrier’s former college team, the Florida Gators. Forget the fact that Central Florida finished last season with as many wins as I have BMWs (read zero). Forget the fact that in the last five years, the Gamecocks might as well have been playing in the Carolina Penal League considering all the rules being broken behind the scenes. Some big hits, long touchdowns and thousands of inebriated college students are all it takes to make me ready for some football.

When the sporting seasons change, everything starts afresh. As of this moment, my two favorite college football teams – the Brigham Young University Cougars and the Kansas Jayhawks – are undefeated and tied for first in their respective leagues. Anything is possible. The Cougars could overcome the last few years of disappointment and underachievement by making a run at the Mountain West title. The Jayhawks could leave behind their own rule-breaking and felonious recent past and take control of the Big 12 North. Uncomfortably large Kansas coach Mark Magino could go an entire season without making me wonder just how many turkey drumstick’s he polished off at halftime. Anything’s possible. The sky’s the limit. And, to show that I am serious about the coming season, I’m offering - free of charge, extensive research and behind the scenes expertise - the Matt Karpowitz 2005 College Football Preview Edition.

Big 12 + 1 Capsules

Baylor Bears – 2004 Record: 3-8 – This team is bad. There’s no other way to put it. The best player on the team is the punter, Daniel Sepulveda. If judged solely by football and men’s basketball, the Bears should be booted from the Big 12. Another disappointing season awaits on the gridiron. Must see game: November 19 versus Oklahoma St. Their last conference game could be the only one they have a shot at winning.

Colorado Buffaloes – 2004 Record: 8-5 – Last year, a .500 conference record was enough for Colorado to win the Big 12 North. The same low standard is probably in effect this year, but the Buffaloes should be able to do much better than 4-4. Joel Klatt pilots an offense that is the class of the division. Look for Colorado in the Big 12 Championship game again this year. Must see game: September 24 @ Miami (Fla.). This will be a solid test for the Buffaloes and a chance to show the nation that there’s more to Big 12 football than Oklahoma and Texas.

Iowa State Cyclones – 2004 Record: 7-5 – The Cyclones are ready for another bowl appearance in 2005. They will give Colorado a run in the North, though they probably don’t have the defense to overtake them. This team is young and ready to get better, and they play in a division where everyone seems to have at least a shot. QB Bret Meyer will have another big year and the Cyclones will be playing in December. Must see game: November 12 versus Colorado. Iowa St. could really shake things up in the North with a win over Colorado in November. Getting the Buffs in Ames could end up being the difference.

Kansas Jayhawks – 2004 Record: 4-7 – The Jayhawks came close plenty of times in 2004, but couldn’t quite get over the hump. 2005 will be a year of regression and probably will bring serious change by the time it is over. With legal problems off the field, possible academic fraud in the football offices and an athletic director with little regard for the head coach, the Jayhawks will have to win to save Magino’s job. Unless Charles Gordon can play every down on offense and defense, I just don’t see that happening this year. Must see game – October 8 @ Kansas St. In-state bragging rates are all that will be on the line when these two teams square off in Manhattan. However, a win here and/or over border rival Missouri could make Mangino difficult to fire.

Kansas State Wildcats – 2004 Record: 4-7 – Is the magic gone for the Wildcats? That’s what everyone in K-State Country is asking. Coach Bill Snyder is looking to silence the critics, but there’s not much left in the cupboard in 2005. An underperforming defense and questions at quarterback will make it difficult for the Wildcats to get back to their winning ways. Add to that the daunting task of replacing tailback Darren Sproles and Kansas State may again be home for the holidays. Must see game – October 29 versus Colorado. This game marks the beginning of a crucial four game stretch against Big 12 North opponents.

Missouri Tigers – 2004 Record: 5-6 – With Brad Smith running the offense, nothing is impossible for the Tigers. Once again, the coaching staff is changing things up to allow Smith’s natural talents to shine through. Every time he walks on the field, he’s the best athlete out there. The question is, does he have the confidence to make the decisions on the fly that will make the offense go. On the sidelines, head coach Gary Pinkle has to be wondering how many “mulligans” he’s going to get before he’s looking for work. Must see game – October 1 versus Texas. The Tigers get the Longhorns early. Plus, Texas may be looking past Missouri to the Red River Shootout against Oklahoma the following week.

Nebraska Cornhuskers – 2004 Record: 5-6 – The Bill Callahan experiment continues in Lincoln. Can the Cornhuskers really win with the pass? My money’s on no. Nebraska will continue to struggle and Callahan will be yet another Big 12 North coach in the hot seat by the end of the year. For this once proud program, mediocrity just isn’t going to be good enough. Must see game – October 29 versus Oklahoma. Anyone who remembers the 80s and 90s in the Big 8 will be shocked at the divergent paths these two teams have taken in the last few years. Look for Oklahoma to cruise into Lincoln and crush the Huskers.

Oklahoma Sooners – 2004 Record: 12-1 – Oklahoma is my pick to come out of the Big 12 and play a role in the national title hunt. This team will be young, but a steady diet of Adrian Peterson running the ball should be enough for them to take control. Plus, no matter how much everyone seems to love Texas this year, head coach Bob Stoops has owned the Longhorns. Until that trend changes, I’m going with the Sooners. Must see game – October 8 versus Texas (in Dallas). The Red River Shootout has been the catalyst to the front of the Big 12 for the last three years and this year shouldn’t be any different. Oklahoma will keep Vince Young off the field by calling Peterson’s number early and often.

Oklahoma State Cowboys – 2004 Record: 7-5 – Head coach Mike Gundy takes over for the departed Les Miles and quarterback Donovan Woods will have fun with the spread offense. But it just won’t be enough in the super-stacked Big 12 South. With only 14 returning starters and the challenge of learning a new system, there’s not enough time to learn on the fly. I see the Cowboys as the fifth best team in the South. That won’t be enough for a bowl game appearance. Must see game – November 26 @ Oklahoma. The Cowboys will look to play spoiler and knock their in-state rival out of the national championship picture. A win here could be enough to make them bowl eligible.

Texas Longhorns – 2004 Record: 11-1 – This team will be very good, there’s no doubt about it. I just don’t think they’ll be good enough. One Rose Bowl victory, no matter how exciting, isn’t enough to overcome their regular season big game collapses. Vince Young is good and the Michigan game was phenomenal. But every year, there’s that one player that everyone falls in love with based on one game. I think that’s Vince Young in 2005. Plus, replacing Cedric Benson will be too much. Must see game – September 10 @ Ohio State. A loss in Columbus will puncture the balloon early for the Longhorns. Though I admire them for scheduling this game, college football is one and done. Losing one this early will leave no margin for error throughout the rest of the year. That’s a tough task with Oklahoma, Texas A&M and Texas Tech still on the schedule.

Texas A&M Aggies – 2004 Record: 7-5 – Reggie McNeal was Vince Young before anyone knew Young’s name. He’s got a better arm, better vision and he is unbelievably strong. This team is well balanced and is going to make some noise. The schedule plays out very nicely for them – at least until November arrives. They finish the season at Texas Tech, at Oklahoma and versus Texas. Ouch. Must see game – November 12 @ Oklahoma. This could easily be a battle of undefeated teams. The Aggies will be looking to serve notice and make a play for the national title.

Texas Tech Red Raiders – 2004 Record: 8-4 – With this offense on the field, anything can happen. It seems like they are always running down hill and into the endzone. Taurean Henderson can hurt you running the ball or catching it out of the backfield. Once again, the Texas Tech Achilles heel will be defense. The Red Raiders don’t field a great defense in the first place, and the offense scores so fast, that the D barely has time to catch their breath before they’re running back out there. Lots of high scoring games in Lubbock. Must see game – October 8 @ Nebraska. After opening with four straight home games (Florida International, Sam Houston State, Indiana State and Kansas) this will be the Red Raiders first real test.

BYU Cougars – 2004 Record: 5-6 – I know, the Cougars are not in the Big 12. But, they should be. Rumor has it they were offered a spot when the Big 8 became the Big 12, but turned it down. This year’s Cougars have a legitimate shot at the Mountain West crown. Watch out for WR Todd Watkins and the return of the classic blue and white uniforms. Must see game: October 22 @ Notre Dame. It’s always fun when these two religious schools get together. Both programs have fallen on hard times, both have first year coaches trying to restore past glory, both are trying to prove they can play elite college football and still uphold high academic, moral and religious standards. Of course, on the football field, that seems to translate to lots of grappling, cursing and name calling.

Games Not to Miss:

If you could only watch one college football game a week for the entire regular season, you would want to make sure you got the best one, right? Well, my crack research staff has put together a schedule to help you out. If you can’t make the one I picked, go for one of the alternates. If you can’t see any of them, stay up for the late night SportsCenter. Now, all you have to do is convince your significant other that once a week for the next 14 weeks, you have an appointment with the couch, the Doritos and the remote. Good luck to you with that.

Week 1: Boise St. @ Georgia (9/3) – Georgia takes a big risk scheduling this WAC powerhouse at the beginning of the year.
Alternates: Bowling Green @ Wisconsin (9/3), Wyoming @ Florida (9/3), Notre Dame @ Pittsburgh (9/3), USC @ Hawaii (9/3), Miami (Fla.) @ Florida St. (9/5).

Week 2: Texas @ Ohio St. (9/10) – Easily the biggest game in September. The loser will have to work hard to get back in the national championship picture.
Alternates: Notre Dame @ Michigan (9/10), Arizona St. @ LSU (9/10)

Week 3: Tennessee @ Florida (9/17) – These two teams hate each other. This will be Urban Meyer’s first test with his spread offense in the SEC.
Alternate: Pittsburgh @ Nebraska (9/17)

Week 4: Notre Dame @ Washington (9/24) – Ty Willingham gets a shot the team that so unceremoniously got rid of him in the off season.
Alternates: Michigan @ Wisconsin (9/24), Tennessee @ LSU (9/24)

Week 5: Michigan @ Michigan St. (10/1) – This instate grudge match is always a good game, and the Spartans will be looking to ruin the Wolverines’ season.
Alternates: USC @ Arizona St. (10/1), Texas @ Missouri (10/1)

Week 6: Oklahoma vs. Texas (in Dallas) (10/8) – Oklahoma will want to remind everyone that the Sooners are the defending Big 12 Champs.
Alternates: Kansas @ Kansas St. (10/8), Georgia @ Tennessee (10/8)

Week 7: Florida @ LSU (10/15) – The biggest road test of the year for the Gators comes against Les Miles’ Tigers.
Alternate: USC @ Notre Dame (10/15)

Week 8: Michigan @ Iowa (10/22) – A huge road game for the Wolverines. The Hawkeyes are very tough at home and will be looking for some national respect.
Alternates: BYU @ Notre Dame (10/22), Purdue @ Wisconsin (10/22)

Week 9: South Carolina @ Tennessee (10/28) – Will Spurrier and Fulmer even shake hands at the end? Those two guys hate each other.
Alternates: Oklahoma @ Nebraska (10/28), Florida vs. Georgia (at Jacksonville) (10/28)

Week 10: Miami (Fla.) @ Virginia Tech (11/5) – Another game with much emotion, this one should be for the ACC title.
Alternate: Pittsburgh @ Louisville (11/3)

Week 11: USC @ California (11/12) – Cal truly believes they are the better team and should have knocked the Trojan off last year. Great grudge match.
Alternates: Boise St. @ Fresno St. (11/10), Florida @ South Carolina (11/12), Texas A&M @ Oklahoma (11/12), Iowa @ Wisconsin (11/12)

Week 12: Ohio St @ Michigan (11/19) – No matter who your favorite team, this game is always one of the best of the year. Don’t miss it.
Alternates: Fresno St. @ USC (11/19), Utah @ BYU (11/19)

Week 13: Texas @ Texas A&M (11/25) – The traditional day-after-Thanksgiving grudge match for Texas bragging rights.
Alternate: Florida St. @ Florida (11/26)

Week 14: Army @ Navy (12/3) – With only five games on tap for the final weekend before the bowls, get that patriotic feeling with Army-Navy.
Alternate: UCLA @ USC (12/3)

The Final Four:

In a perfect world, at least the top four teams would play in a Final Four style playoff to determine the real national champion. Who will those four teams be and why? I’ll tell you, and I’ll even take it one step further. The eventual National Champion will be one of these four teams. You heard it here, first folks – from four to one, the teams to watch in 2005:

4) Michigan Wolverines – Look out for Michigan this year. The Big 10 always seems to knock itself out of contention and the current bowl system does not account for power conferences that beat up on each other from week to week. But the Wolverines are good enough to run the table this year in the Big 10 and with the national championship being played in the Rose Bowl, they’ll want their traditional spot representing their conference. Michigan will have to earn it with road games at Wisconsin and Iowa, plus the big rivalry with Ohio State in Ann Arbor this year. But, don’t be surprised if the Wolverines are playing on January 4 in Pasadena.

3) USC Trojans – I know, this isn’t a big surprise. It seems everyone and their dog is picking USC to win their third straight title this year. And they are definitely going to be up there. This team is battle tested and proven. The transformation of Pete Carroll from mediocre NFL coach to superstar college coach has been amazing. The Pac 10 is a little light again this year and Matt Leinart and Reggie Bush will be enough to make any opponent more than a little nervous. But, the Trojans have some roadblocks this year that could really surprise them. Traveling to Hawaii (9/3) is never easy and the trip to Cal in November will loom large. But, USC should have more talent on the field than any of their opponents and will be in the hunt for the national title.

2) Oklahoma Sooners – You’ve heard it all before. “The league is too weak.” “They don’t have to play anyone.” “It’s just name recognition.” But, the truth is, the Big 12 isn’t as weak as it’s been in the past and Oklahoma will earn it’s place in it’s third straight national championship game. The best player in the country runs the football in Norman and Adrian Peterson is ready to prove it. They’ll run the ball all day and play tough defense. Plus, they have a linebacker named Rufus. These guys are very good. And, not that they needed any more motivation, but I think they’ll be a little bit tired of the sports media’s love fest with Texas and Vince Young. Get ready for Bob Stoops to have a front row seat for the Tournament of Roses Parade.

1) Florida Gators – The best team in the toughest conference deserves to play for the national championship. That should be a law. The best conference in America this year will be the SEC. The best team will be the Florida Gators. Can Urban Meyer’s offense succeed against bigger, faster and tougher defenses than what he faced in the Mountain West? That’s the biggest question mark of the year. But with Chris Leak under center (or in the shotgun) and the best group of receivers in the country, these guys are going to be flying around the field. Deception can beat speed and Meyer’s offense is all about deception. You just don’t know where the ball is going to go. Plus, the schedule helps. The biggest road game of the year comes October 15 at LSU. The Gators get Tennessee and Florida State at home and Georgia on a neutral field. To me, that’s a recipe for success.

So, there you go. Urban Meyer will lead his second straight team to an undefeated season and this time he’ll come away with the hardware – a national championship for Gator-nation. And, if I’m wrong? Well, don’t worry. We get to do it all over again in 12 months.