Season of Hope

The National Football League has it all figured out. They put the pieces together, they’ve been willing to sacrifice a little for the good of the whole and they’ve reaped the reward – becoming the most powerful sports league in the United States. And this is the time of year when you can see just how well the business plan works. From Seattle to South Florida, from San Diego to Foxborough and everywhere in between, fans are saying the same thing: “If a couple of things go our way, this could be our year!” It’s true! The feeling is everywhere. Colts fans believe Manning gets over the hump this year and carries the franchise to glory. Raider fans are hopeful a mobile Aaron Brooks will allow the offense to carry a suspect D. Just last week, Eagles fans saw the trade for Donte Stallworth and said, “This may be the missing piece now that You Know Who is gone.” It’s all based on hope – and hope sells tickets.

Granted, some hopes are more realistic than others. For example, the Patriots have a proven track record that a strong D and some piece parts on offense, plus the amazing leadership ability of Tom Brady can be enough to win Super Bowls. They don’t need to just hope – they’ve seen it happen. Their hope is that the stars align again this year – and that Deion Branch picks up his uniform and starts playing! On the other coast, 49ers fans are hoping that things click this year for Alex Smith and that the offense can look more like an NFL team and less like pee-wee football. But, the hope is still there that with just a few breaks, the 49ers can be a wildcard team. Perhaps the place where hope reigns supreme this year is in the Superdome in New Orleans. Just a year after Katrina, the signing of a marquee QB and dumb luck (plus a dumber Houston front office) helping to get Reggie Bush wearing black and gold, hope is the operative word in the Saints locker room. Hope is contagious in the NFL – and from late July to early September, it is rampant.

Right here in Kansas City, hope strikes hard. Like the majority of NFL teams, hope in Kansas City is based on not-quite fulfilled expectations in the past combined with off-season moves heralded with the promise of future success. It’s the kind of hope that builds excitement, even though there are way too many unanswered questions. A defense that has been horrid for years gets some young talent up front and some old talent in the secondary. But is it enough to even be middle-of-the-pack in the NFL? The offense is revamped to focus on a bruising runner that exploited defenses throughout the second half of 2005. But, with huge changes along the offensive line, will he get the blocking he needs to continue his meteoric success? And of course, the issue of age. Is the window closing? Despite the likes of Derrick Johnson, Tamba Hali and Larry Johnson, the Chiefs must be considered one of the older teams in the league. Trent Green, Tony Gonzalez, Eddie Kennison, Will Shields Ty Law and Patrick Surtain all will play prominent – even vital – roles this year. Yet all are on the back-half of their careers and, in the NFL, age can catch up in an instant. All we can do is hope that these guys still have enough in the tank to finish the year.

As for me, I’m conflicted. I want to buy into the hype. I want to believe that a patchwork offensive line can open holes for Larry Johnson, even with future Hall of Famer Willie Roaf watching from home. I want to believe that Tony Gonzalez will get back the Mojo that Antonio Gates stole from him and return to prominence as one of the best Tight Ends in the game. I want to believe Kyle Turley can protect Trent Green’s blindside and Sammie Parker can become a legitimate receiving threat. Then there’s the defense. I hope against hope that Hali will be a difference maker and not hit the wall in Week 10. I hope that Ty Law still has enough savvy to pick off 5 to 10 passes and Bernard Pollard can continue to ram into receivers like a freight train. I’m desperate to see a defensive line that can at least slow the run, even if they can’t stop it all together.

But, even will all this hope running through my veins, I’ve got a nagging feeling about this Chiefs team. There’s that doubt in the back of my mind – this fear that we’re one knee injury away from 2-14. I was amazed by Larry Johnson last year. I don’t expect a repeat performance. The line is part of the reason. But the other part is just a feeling. I’m not sure Larry can do it for a full year. He’s going to slow down. Defenses are going to stack against him. It will be more difficult. I like Ty Law, but the man is getting up there for a defensive back and he has to go up against Randy Moss twice this year (even with Aaron Brooks throwing those ducks down the field). And, I firmly believe the AFC West is one of the best, if not the best, division in football. Nobody lies down. There are no gimmies. Oakland is bad, but they’re still Oakland. Even if you dressed me in Silver and Black, you couldn’t pay me enough to go to a game there. That place is scary! Denver is better than last year – even with Jake the Snake still running the offense. San Diego probably has the most talent in the AFC, but will have to get along together to make it work. It’s going to be a tough ride. I can see the Chiefs finishing anywhere from 8-8 to 12-4. I think they’ll need at least 10 wins – and most likely 11 – to make the playoffs. So, here’s how I think it shakes out this year:

September 10 versus Cincinnati – Carson Palmer will come out firing, but Arrowhead on Opening Day should be enough. Plus, I think Palmer is still worried about his legs and I wouldn’t put it past Gunther Cunningham to tell his guys to hit low. Chiefs hold on for the win (1-0).

September 17 at Denver – The frustration continues at Mile High. This game is probably too early for a Chiefs defense still trying to find its way. Plummer will be conservative early in the year – he saves his choke jobs for when it matters. Broncos get the first one (1-1).

September 24 – BYE.

October 1 versus San Francisco – This is one of those games that the Chiefs lost in the past because they assumed they would win just by showing up. I blame that on Vermeil. I think Edwards has them ready and they win big (2-1).

October 8 at Arizona – Edgerin James scares me, but Kurt Warner and the Arizona offensive line do not. I’d give anything to have one of those receivers wearing red and gold, though. I like the Chiefs in the dessert (3-1).

October 15 at Pittsburgh – The Chiefs are no match for the defending Super Bowl champs. This team will be supremely confident and I don’t think the Chiefs can stop Willie Parker or the Steelers’ defense. Chiefs lose (3-2).

October 22 versus San Diego – I like the Chiefs to defend their home turf against and AFC West rival. Look for multiple defensive stunts to keep Phillip Rivers uncomfortable and the Chiefs out in front (4-2).

October 29 versus Seattle – The Chiefs can’t keep the momentum going and Shawn Alexander will tear them to pieces. In a matter of three weeks, they’ll have lost to both 2006 Super Bowl teams (4-3).

November 5 at St. Louis – The Chiefs reach the half-way point of the season with no sign of Willie Roaf. However, they are better than the Rams and talent will be enough (5-3).

November 12 at Miami – The Dolphins prove why they are one of the AFC favorites this year – dominating the Chiefs on the ground and on defense. That is quickly becoming the recipe for success against KC as they just can’t get over the hump (5-4).

November 19 versus Oakland – The Chiefs move into the easiest part of their schedule and crush the Raiders in KC. No love lost between these teams, but Oakland is bad on both sides of the ball (6-4).

November 23 versus Denver – Again, the Chiefs use home field and fend off the surging Broncos. Thanksgiving Day in KC will be good for the home team (7-4).

December 3 at Cleveland – The Browns and Charlie Frye will be overmatched as they are still a couple of years away. The Chiefs make it three in a row with a road win (8-4).

December 10 versus Baltimore – This game would scare me earlier in the year, but this late, McNair will be hurt, Lewis will be in jail and the Chiefs will win their fourth in a row (9-4).

December 17 at San Diego – On the road in the AFC is always tough and this game proves no different. The Chargers use Tomlinson perfectly and knock off the Chiefs (9-5).

December 23 at Oakland – A night game with those insane fans? No thank you. But, the Chiefs put up a good fight, then blow it on a couple of big plays to Randy Moss (9-6).

December 31 versus Jacksonville – In a must win to have any shot at the playoffs, and playing at home, the Chiefs struggle with the pressure, but are able to keep Jacksonville quiet in the cold (10-6).

So, there you have it. Ten wins, six losses. But, here’s the kicker that will really make Carl Peterson’s blood boil. It still won’t be enough to get into the playoffs, finishing with a 3-3 division record – behind San Diego and Denver at 4-2 in the West. And so will begin an off-season of frustration. And, when the NFL draft roles around, hope will return. It always does.

The Race for 63! The Royals take two from the Twins and two from the White Sox before getting crushed by the Payroll (Yanks) on Labor Day. They’ve got a heck of a schedule through the end of the year, but the .500 baseball effort will still get the job done. Current record – 51-88. Projected record – 59-103.